Monday, March 10, 2014

China 'burps' and the whole world faints!

OK, maybe that was a bit much for a ‘header,’ but I am merely making the point about how much the ‘worm had turned.’ Oops, there I go again. Once upon a time, the world plunged in to recession, or to be more blunt, the worst depression in the last century, when the USA ‘whacked the world’ with the stock market crash. The flow-on effect continued right up to (and some say beyond) WW2.
In the 21st century, the USA still retains a massive influence on the world economy, but now, if China stops its economic catch-up to the USA, then something akin to what we saw in 1929 could easily happen again. Our near neighbour, Australia would just about shut up shop as the exports it digs from the ground dry up. For New Zealand, the same issue would cast doubt on our ability to pay our way in the world. While we do not export much in the way of mineral wealth (maybe the iron sands would come into that though) we are still overly dependent on China and those countries that trade with China.
So when China slows down, even by relatively small amounts, we shudder as we see our export figures take a tumble. If China continues to grows, be it at a more modest rate, then we will manage our way through the ups and downs of economic cycles, but there is little we can do, other than diversify as much as we can; hoping that the China-growth-syndrome,’ does not knock out our other markets.
The fact that China is now well and truly part of the ‘world economic order,; is good in that the threat of a real-gun-toting-bomb dropping war,’ is lessened, except for those regional ‘bushfires,’ that seem to fuel the ‘military-industrial- complexes of the ‘old order.’ They need instability in order to maintain their obscene profits.
So---please china---don’t burp! ---Just let it out kinda slowly---politely.