Thursday, May 1, 2014

Ukraine begins military conscription.

I hope that the announcement by the 'interim Government ' of Ukraine is not a sign that things have progressed to the point that all else has failed re the resolution of the crisis in that country. Whilst it is obvious to most that events in the east and south of Ukraine are tantamount to a rebellion against--what----? an elected Government? NO. Until there is an election and/or a referendum to determine the 'borders of Ukraine and for there to be a 'legitimate' government based on a fair and open process, then anything else is just adding to the difficulty on the region, fed no doubt by historic  Russian fears of being surrounded by less than friendly powers.
Now that Ukraine has called up it's men  (and women?) to arms, then the step towards all-out war is that much closer. If they think that the USA, EU and others will respond in kind, they are forgetting an important geopolitical fact: The aforementioned countries will not commit to a war, simply because Ukraine does not posses the oil and other economic necessities that they require for their economies. At best Ukraine is a conduit for Russian fuel and that can be bypassed if necessary. Sure the 'West' will make all the sounds re democratic and political solidarity but no one expects there to be a war on behalf of Ukraine. At best, there will be increased economic sanctions and it those that may make a difference.
In the meantime, Ukraine is going to need to make an assessment off where the borders of that country truly lie, in conjunction with real dialogue between Russia, the inhabitants of the regions in question and the EU/UN. Unfortunately there are forces and personal ambitions held by various 'players' that supersede such honest discourse.