Saturday, November 10, 2012

The Republicans are far from spent!

Anyone who thinks that the Republicans have been dealt a ‘death blow’ is fooling themselves. How often in history does an elite ‘fall from power,’ without a violent revolution or at least a massive popular upswing? Elites do fall, only to be replaced by another. Sometimes we call it a dynasty and at others it could be a one-party-state, as in the case of China (A new dynasty?)
We are hearing that the Republicans did not take into account the growing diversity of the American electorate or the move of female voters to the softer offerings from Obama. This may be true and be effective in the short term as a factor in the win for Obama, but even diverse groups change within themselves over time. What happens to the aspirations of middle-class Afro-Americans or Latinos/Hispanics? As their group ‘make it within the USA would not they also change their political allegiances over time?
Yes, we have heard that the majority of voters in many countries vote as their parents did and stay with that choice for following election cycles. A much smaller group could be considered ‘swinging voters’ and it is this group that changes governments and fates for politicians. Even a change of 10% represents a ‘landslide’ victory for the winning party or candidate.
One principle that has been consistent throughout history is that the ruling elite do not willingly give up power. There are all sorts of clich├ęs that underlie this statement. ‘The rich fight harder to keep what they have and employ far more resources to keep this so, than do the poor who lack the means and will to make real change. Even when they do, they rely on the impetus created by many middle-class backers.  Yes, simplistic and I must not make the mistake of saying that this scenario explains every political change.
The Republicans will go away and lick their wounds, play the blame game and come up with strategies that will reinvigorate the Party. They will form alliances with other groups; for example, the Christian vote that places religion above the interest of the state, or other more extreme groups. They will play to the sense of loss amongst former Republican supporters and they will lie---yes---watch for the misrepresentation of how they see the USA going. The scenarios they will create are multiple; all playing on the fear of middle-class Americans, because that is the group they will need to attract most.
The Phoenix will rise again, amongst a plethora of lies and half-truths. Democrats—do not rest on your laurels. Mind you; there is the spectre of the Republican controlled Congress to keep you real.  

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