Sunday, October 7, 2012

Syria is far more complicated than we think--beware!

There is a good deal of reluctance on the part of the USA and its ‘friends’ to supply the Syrian rebels with military ordinance. OK, we don’t know what is happening at an ‘unofficial level,’ but it is starting to become clearer that we just don’t know who these rebels are. At best they may be a disparate grouping of those opposed to the present Syrian regime. There appears to be no clear leader and the only unifying policy is that they all hate the current president and his faction.
I wasn’t surprised to see a report on RT (Russian TV) that one faction of the rebels is saying that they will have a day of reckoning with the ‘Jews.’ This may be the statement of one spokesperson or represent a small section of the rebels, but how can we know this? It should sound the warning bells that once a victor emerges from the present struggle, we may see an entirely different world in the Middle East.
Whilst we have also witnessed a more moderate approach in Libya, that does not mean that the same evolution of Government will happen in Syria. I am sure there will be moderate voices coming forth in Syria, but history has taught us that it is usually the better organized groups who attain power, possibly because they are more likely to employ violent methods to win that power.
We have known for many years that the Middle East is an area that is capable of exploding into war and then threaten the peace of a vastly larger region. Geography, history, religion and economics all play a part in this potentiality. Super power rivalry feeds on this and imposes its own ramifications to an already tinderbox-like scenario. Syria and the present struggle represent one of the most lethal combinations to threaten peace that we have seen in quite a while. It appears we have a no win situation.
If the president stays in power, the struggle will go on, with no clear winner. If the rebels do manage to win, we are faced with the possibility of an extremist regime, more than capable of seeking answers to internal problems by focusing beyond its borders.
Hence the continuing issue of Israel’s position in the Middle East. There is no doubt that Israel will face increasing pressure on a number of fronts. It is not just the words of the Iranian Leader that causes concern, but the potential alliance between Iran and other nations in the ME; all with an avowed policy of ‘driving the Jews out of the region.’ Combine this with Israel’s likely response and we have all of the main characters on the stage for a much wider conflagration.
It is this enlarged scenario that makes one quiver. We cannot be sure that the UN is capable of curtailing the actions of the combatants. Yes, the UN was instrumental in the formation of Israel, but is it going to be able to protect Israel’s right to exist? When there are so many factions, at odds with one another in the UN, then I do not hold a great deal of hope that the said body will be able to bring those seeking war to the peace table.
Are we really going to see Armageddon? The very area where the religions evolving from the dessert originated may yet give us a very different ‘final solution;’ one where we all become the losers. The sad fact remains, that it is always the vast majority of people in all of the countries of this region, struggling to live  and provide for their families, who will be drawn into this terrible war, and differ only in the ‘Book’ they hold precious. The politics beyond their homes is a far more potent affair!
Syria is not just another ‘wild-fire.’ It has the potential to threaten world peace way more than other regional conflicts of the past. The manner in which all nations react is going to determine a great deal  about our collective  futures----possibly our very existence.